Estimación holística del riesgo sísmico utilizando sistemas dinámicos complejos

Author

Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario

Director

Barbat, Álex H. (Álex Horia)

Date of defense

2001-12-19

ISBN

8469984454

Legal Deposit

B-29326-2002



Department/Institute

Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria del Terreny, Cartogràfica i Geofísica

Abstract

The present research commences with a revision of the concepts of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. This is a basic requirement for the construction of the theoretical framework herein developed. A revision of commonly used concepts is offered in order to identify gaps and fine-tune definitions that will help in the search to offer a coherent and integrated theoretical framework. Approaches developed in the natural, applied, and social sciences are discussed and a criticism of these is offered. It is argued that conceptual fragmentation and inconsistency have been two of the reasons why risk reduction has been in good part unsuccessful in a large number of countries. The lack of an adequate conceptual basis has impeded adequate interventions.<br/>Risk is understood in terms of potentially dangerous events and the vulnerability of exposed social elements. This type of analysis is linked into decision-making processes, and the difficulties associated with the implementation of risk reduction public policies are made explicit. Inherent uncertainty and reductionist approaches help explain this problem. Moreover, factors such as risk perception of decision-makers; legal contexts that impede preventive actions, and the general problem of levels of risk tolerance and acceptability also come into play.<br/>The traditional approach to evaluating urban seismic risk is revised. This involves a consideration of the physical effects and damage to be expected in exposed elements under determined seismic conditions. Modern techniques for seismic vulnerability estimates and knowledge in the area of loss and damage are summarized. And, the better approach to physical urban seismic risk evaluation from the perspective of the author is provided.<br/>A coherent and consistent conceptual risk model is provided based on complex non-lineal dynamic systems theory. This allows an explanation of the concept of crisis, instability and adaptability relating this to the concepts of disaster, vulnerability, risk and prevention. Urban centres are seen as complex dynamic systems. Two holistic urban seismic risk-modeling techniques are then proposed. The first methodology is based on relative indicators using hierarchical and pairwise analytical processes. The second methodology employs neural networks and fuzzy sets approaches. The two methodologies take into account the physical, economic, social and institutional variables, which allow a multidisciplinary approach to seismic risk assessment. The methods are subsequently employed in the estimation of seismic risk in the city of Bogotá, Colombia.<br/>Finally, a risk management strategy is proposed as a planning tool, and a global proposal is made for facing collective risk, which is a clearly significant contemporary technical and social problem. Recommendations are made, as regards needed future studies and research.

Keywords

sistemes dinàmics; risc sismic

Subjects

55 - Earth Sciences. Geological sciences

Knowledge Area

3305. Tecnologia de la construcció

Documents

01Portadas.PDF

21.32Kb

02Contenido.PDF

22.74Kb

03Capitulo1.PDF

16.97Kb

04Capitulo2.PDF

138.7Kb

05Capitulo3.PDF

137.2Kb

06Capitulo4.PDF

395.7Kb

07Capitulo5.PDF

804.1Kb

08Capitulo6.PDF

351.2Kb

09Capitulo7.PDF

1.537Mb

10Capitulo8.PDF

117.4Kb

11Capitulo9.PDF

27.48Kb

12Referencias.PDF

270.5Kb

13ApendiceA.PDF

77.50Kb

14ApendiceB.PDF

159.3Kb

15ApendiceC01.PDF

202.0Kb

16ApendiceC02.PDF

116.3Kb

17ApendiceC03.PDF

151.8Kb

18ApendiceC04.PDF

152.9Kb

19ApendiceC05.PDF

136.9Kb

20ApendiceC06.PDF

107.1Kb

21ApendiceC07.PDF

92.79Kb

22ApendiceC08.PDF

75.89Kb

23ApendiceC09.PDF

84.67Kb

24ApendiceC10.PDF

122.4Kb

25ApendiceC11.PDF

141Kb

26ApendiceD.PDF

340.1Kb

27ApendiceE.PDF

145.4Kb

 

Rights

ADVERTIMENT. L'accés als continguts d'aquesta tesi doctoral i la seva utilització ha de respectar els drets de la persona autora. Pot ser utilitzada per a consulta o estudi personal, així com en activitats o materials d'investigació i docència en els termes establerts a l'art. 32 del Text Refós de la Llei de Propietat Intel·lectual (RDL 1/1996). Per altres utilitzacions es requereix l'autorització prèvia i expressa de la persona autora. En qualsevol cas, en la utilització dels seus continguts caldrà indicar de forma clara el nom i cognoms de la persona autora i el títol de la tesi doctoral. No s'autoritza la seva reproducció o altres formes d'explotació efectuades amb finalitats de lucre ni la seva comunicació pública des d'un lloc aliè al servei TDX. Tampoc s'autoritza la presentació del seu contingut en una finestra o marc aliè a TDX (framing). Aquesta reserva de drets afecta tant als continguts de la tesi com als seus resums i índexs.